SPC AC 040732

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0232 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Potential for severe thunderstorms will exist across primarily parts
   of the Plains on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad, low-amplitude troughing aloft will be present within much of
   the CONUS apart from the West Coast. Shortwave perturbations moving
   through the broader trough are expected from the central Plains into
   the Midwest. At the surface, a low pressure system will be in
   southeastern Canada. The reservoir of richer surface moisture will
   have been pushed south of a cold front that will extend from the
   southern High Plains into the Mid-South and Northeast. As
   northwesterly flow aloft increases across the central Rockies,
   models suggest a lee surface low will develop within the CO/KS/NE
   vicinity. Models do differ on the intensity of this surface low as
   well as its exact position.

   ...Plains...
   Though moisture will have been reduced behind the cold front, models
   suggest that low 60s F dewpoints are possible perhaps as far north
   as Nebraska. In general, thunderstorm development is possible within
   the lee trough in the southern High Plains, near the surface low in
   the central High Plains, and also near a weak warm front/theta-e
   boundary in eastern Nebraska. The exact scenario which will produce
   the greatest severe risk remains uncertain, however. Given the
   remnant moisture, northwest flow advecting steep lapse rates into
   the region, and shortwave trough to provide forcing for ascent, some
   severe risk appears probable. At this point in time, large hail with
   initial supercells and a transition to more of a severe wind threat
   (given relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads) are the
   primary concerns. The outlook area will likely have to be refined as
   additional guidance becomes available and confidence in corridors of
   greatest risk increases.

   ...Mid-Atlantic...
   Thunderstorms are possible along a weak cold front. Model trends
   have been for less storm coverage. Additionally, the trough may
   remain slightly displaced from the greatest buoyancy. Isolated
   strong to severe storms are possible, but coverage is too uncertain
   for highlights.

   ..Wendt.. 07/04/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z