ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032020

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

   Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

   The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized
   by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An
   upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of
   British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into
   the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge
   significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is
   that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US.
   Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged
   period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range
   guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough
   approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could
   increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However,
   there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and
   orientation of this upper-level feature.

   ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin...
   As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the
   Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak
   are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley
   into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical
   conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts
   differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting
   significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the
   two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current
   thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the
   GFS. 

   ...West Coast...
   Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint
   at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern
   periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the
   placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge.
   While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will
   need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in
   the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce
   probabilities at this time.

   ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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