(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040850
SPC AC 040850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Sunday...
The upper-level trough will dig slightly farther south into Oklahoma
before lifting northeastward on Monday. For portions of the
central/southern Plains, both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that
convection will develop along the intersection of the cold and warm
front within a weak surface low. Similar to Saturday, moisture will
not be overly rich, but northward moisture return will be in
progress. Convection is forecast to grow upscale into an MCS and
move southward into the greater buoyancy. With differences in the
position and intensity of the surface low, as well as possible
impacts from convection on Saturday, predictability remains too low
for the introduction of 15% total severe probabilities.
TC Beryl continues to move towards the Yucatan Peninsula and is
expected to reach the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, TX on
Sunday per latest NHC forecasts. Some tornado risk is possible for
parts of South Texas, but magnitude and spatial extent of this risk
will depend on how much the TC restrengthens after interacting with
the Peninsula and where the system will actually track late this
weekend into early next week.
...D5/Monday and beyond...
The upper-level trough will slowly make progress into the Midwest
and eventually into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. While some severe
risk is possible ahead of this trough, questions regarding
destabilization and general lack of robust surface features during
the upcoming week keep confidence too low for highlights at this
time.
..Wendt.. 07/04/2024
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